Feel the loss

Feel the loss... and let it drive you.

Make it a positive.

The urgency differential

Raising money is hard. Partly because there is often an urgency differential between raiser and raisee.

To the raiser, this is the most important thing in the world. To the raisee, it's on a long list.

Be polite, persistent and respectful, and remember the differential. If they don't reply with the urgency you would like, it's rarely personal.

You have to know what matters to you

There are one hundred reasons you can choose to pass on any investment.

I could write a compelling pass memo on any of the startups I have invested in, including the most successful.

You have to know what matters to you.

Politics: definition

politics /ˈpɒlɪtɪks/ noun

A game where everyone assumes they are right and anyone with opposing views is an idiot or bad person or both.

This is what I do

There is a subtle difference in tone that we instinctively understand when someone has confidence they will get there.

It applies to fundraising as much as anything else.

It's hard to put a finger on.

But it's something like "This is what I do" rather than "This is how I fit in your box".

Investing is a ranking game

Investing is a ranking game. Investors have to pick what they think the best five (for example) things they see this year are.

What does this mean for investors?

You have to see as many high quality opportunities as possible. You have to be good at ranking. You have to get picked by founders when the deal that ranks in your top five is competitive.

What does this mean for founders?

A pass doesn't mean you are not a good business. It means that specific investor doesn't think you are in the top five of the hundreds or thousands of startups they've seen this year.

It's not personal. It is a competition. If you win, someone else doesn't.

Democracy day

Today the US celebrates its Independence from British rule on the same day the UK election will likely see the largest majority in modern history.

This feels ironic but I can't find the hot take.

What's yours?

Guernsey Venture Challenge 2024

I will be a judge again for this year's Guernsey Venture Challenge.

We will be awarding £70k of grants.

The deadline is the 7th so, if you haven't applied yet, get a move on!

The risks of AI regulation

My article on the risks of AI regulation for Business Brief.

It inhibits innovation and gives countries with less regulation a competitive advantage.

Also be nervous when the main proponent of regulation is the largest player (hi OpenAI). Regulatory capture is real.

To FOMO or not to FOMO

Founders, don't try and create FOMO if it isn't real.

If it is, don't be afraid to use it. If it isn't, it will backfire.

Learn to storytell

Any skill can be taught or learnt. Storytelling, a hugely important one, is no different.

I recommend anything by or about Ira Glass of This American Life.

Ira on how to frame a story - “How did you think the situation was going to work out before it happened? And then how did it really work out?”

Via Polina Marinova Pompliano of The Profile who has a great profile of Ira Glass. Lots of gold in there.

How do you plan to win

No business, no startup, no investor or VC firm has any divine right to win. There is always competition for time and money.

I aim to be a better investor than anyone else out there. Otherwise, I'd give my money to someone else to manage.

How do you plan to win?

Tactics vs Strategy

"Tactics vs Strategy."

Tactics: Trump immediately puts out loads of publicity around Biden's debate performance and the polls move in his favour.

Strategy: Trump realises he has a way better chance in the election against Biden and doesn't want to encourage the Democrats to replace him. He keeps quiet until that can't happen then uses the same tactics.

Tactics is what maximises now. Strategy takes the big picture into account. They don't always point in the same direction.

Always be thinking of both.

Sell but don’t sell

"Sell but don't sell."

If your potential client thinks you are trying to persuade them, they will put up barriers. If you are genuinely trying to help them figure out if your product is right for them, they will have an open conversation.

Present whatever you have to offer in the best light. Seek to understand the potential client to see if you are a fit. But only they will know if you are.

Sell but don't sell.

Metal is hot

"Metal is Hot"

Magrathea just got featured in The New Yorker (link).

Summary
- Dirt cheap renewable energy means Magrathea can produce carbon neutral magnesium at a price point where it competes with steel and aluminium.

Bullets
- Magnesium is the world's third most common structural metal
- It significantly trails steel and aluminium because it’s more expensive to make
- A huge chunk of that cost is energy
- Magrathea has a unique production process which can be turned on and off as required
- In California, for large parts of the day energy is dirt cheap because of solar and wind
- Magrathea can produce cost effective carbon neutral magnesium when most the world's comes from China then Russia and burns huge amounts of coal
- Magnesium then competes with steel and aluminium as it becomes price competitive
- Demand for Magrathea's magnesium goes through the roof

Congrats to Alex Grant and Jacob Brown on the coverage.

Just start

“Just start”

The one thing all fools have in common is that they're always getting ready to start - Seneca, more or less.

There's always a reason to procrastinate. You will always be better tomorrow.

Embrace your imperfections. Sometimes you just have to start.

What motivates you

What motivates you?

What drives me

"What drives me."

I'm 51. A few times in SF I was asked, how do you keep your drive? My father is your age and he is stagnating.

I started work at 21. I hope to be less than half way through my career. There is a huge amount for me to achieve. It's easy to be driven.

I have learnt more in the last 5 years than in any others. I will keep doing that.

"What are US investors looking for?" - 30th July

"What are US investors looking for?"

I just spent close to a month in San Francisco meeting VC funds. I met 38 funds.

Why?

- The US market is at least ten times the size of the UK. To get the biggest outcomes you need to go there.
- When you go there it is very helpful to have a US VC on board.
- To feed back what they are looking for to my portfolio so they can be on the right path and frame themselves correctly when they raise there.
- To make warm intros for my founders because they make a difference.
- To attract the most ambitious founders who know the US needs to be on their path.

Come and hear what US investors are looking for on 30th July with me and Vasily Alekseenko as part of another amazing Rare Founders event.

Persistence plus

Persistence is a necessary but not sufficient condition for success.

You and your product still need to be great.